bitcoin news 2023

BTC Indicators Confirm End Of Bear Market


After Bitcoin(BTC) has staged a substantial rally of 29% since the beginning of the year, investors are speculating about whether this is a bull trap or actually the beginning of a new bull market. Currently, there is still a lot of skepticism among analysts about whether Bitcoin has really found its bottom. Used BTC indicators

To answer this question, the renowned on-chain analysis company Gassnode published today a list of 10 indicators to answer the most pressing question of all. As the company notes, there is “no single silver bullet to accomplish this task.”

However, the 10 indicators can provide a clue as to whether Bitcoin is nearing the end of its bear market. According to Glassnode’s analysis, four BTC indicators already confirm the end, while two indicators are “in progress,” and four indicators, in turn, have not yet been triggered.

Bullish Indicators For Bitcoin(BTC)

The first indicator, which has already been triggered, is Realized Cap HODL Waves (LTH). The BTC indicators state that historically, an intersection between the Realized Price * 0.7 and the 200D SMA * 0.6 price model occurs during the lowest phases of bear markets.


btc chart
A second indicator that the bear market is ending is a healthy increase in miner revenues, signaling a competitive fee market. According to Glassnode, the 90-day SMA of miner fee revenue has exceeded the 365-day SMA. This suggests that there is a “constructive uptick in blockspace congestion.”

The Long-Term To Short-Term Profitability Indicator has also been completely established. The measure indicates that many coins have been traded at bargain prices. This realigns the average market cost base to cheaper and lower prices, which establishes a “strong foundation” for bull cycles.


btc supply
The “Bitcoin Cycle Change Detection Indicator,” last but not least, has also been fully activated. The statistic demonstrates that saturation by price-insensitive holders has occurred at the point where the link between price depreciation and supply of profit is falling.


btc cycle 2023
The New Address Momentum indicator, which indicates a lasting market rebound due to the increase in network activity, is in the process of being confirmed. This happens, in accordance with Glassnode, when the 30-day SMA of new addresses surpasses the 365-day SMA and persists for at least 60 days.
Early in November 2022, a positive momentum spike took place. But up until now, this has only been maintained for one month,” adds Glassnode.

Also not yet confirmed is the Supply Stress Ratio Indicator. In deep bear market phases, this metric reaches a drastic drop below 1.0, reflecting that the “weak hands” are being flushed out of the market.

The “ratio is currently within the peak market stress regime that has historically been sufficient to shake out a majority of investors,” according to the research firm.

Indicators For A Bearish Scenario

The general resumption of activity by smaller and larger companies speaks to the impending end of the bear market. The Relative Activity Of Large And Small Businesses indicator still displays a considerable reduction in on-chain activity by entities of all sizes, as is typical for a bear market (threshold 1.2).

btc relative
Also, the evaluation of the realized profit and loss shows the still bearish stage of the market. As the 30-day SMA of the realized P/L ratio has not yet recovered above 1.0, this suggests that demand is not yet able to absorb the profits taken.

A similar picture is painted by the aSOPR, which monitors profitability based on output spent and signals that there has been no trend shift yet.

btc realized

Last but not least, Glassnode asserts that there has not yet been evidence of a trend reversal on the chain. The patterns of spending demonstrate this.

Comparing the amount of unrealized profit stored within recently purchased (and HODLed) coins to that being realized by expended coins is one approach to gauge this. Although the indication has not yet been activated, a promising breakthrough is imminent.

As of publication, the price of Bitcoin was trading slightly below the significant resistance at $21,500.

BTCUSD tradingview chart
BTCUSD tradingview chart

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